Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
